Forecast for 2012

     I wanted to put out my first forecast on the blog as a way to measure the success of my opinions.  I plan to relook at these predictions in December 2012 and grade myself on well I have done.  I was always a B+ student so more than likely I will meet with similar success (at least I hope).  Warning my crystal ball could use some Windex occasionally.

·         US to enter mild recession in 2012 I am predicting that the US economy will stall out for a brief mild recession in 2012.  It will more than likely be brought on by an external event (i.e. major bank failure or sovereign failure in Europe, natural disaster in US, etc.).  This event will cause people to pause as they watch it unfold on TV and over the internet.

·         Housing Recovery in US This is an easy prediction.  We are starting to see a housing recovery in the US, albeit at a slow pace, as investors are using cash to buy properties at once in a generation pricing.  The cash flow that these properties are putting off is incredible especially given that these are typically investments for small investors.

·         US Stock Markets to drop 25% I predict the stock market will end up slightly (less than 10%) from Jan 2^nd levels but during the year experience a 25% correction.  The 25% correction will probably be tied to the first prediction.  We typically experience a bear market every 3 years.  We are overdue.  The reason for the upbeat end of year forecast is because the US economy is actually getting better and the cause of the recession will be external, not internal.  Traditionally the US ignores the rest of the world after two months of an event being thrust upon the American people.  Let’s face it, the average American really does not care what happens outside of their little world.

·         Obama wins.  In what appears to be an Obama vs. Romney presidential race, it looks like an easy victory for Obama.  I personally think Obama is tied for the 2^nd worst president ever with George W. Bush.  Problem is that Romney is the typical plastic politician.  He is only in it for his own ego not to actually improve the country.  Massachusetts was a mess when he took over and nothing changed during his tenure.  All he seems to do is a bunch of negative campaigns whenever a candidate jumps out ahead of him.  If Ron Paul or Chris Christie were running for President it would be different.  Independents would get out the vote for them.  Obama will win because the low voter turnout.

Full Disclosure

     I am an independent voter that really thinks we need a third party that is moderate in nature, fiscally conservative, and puts the country first.  This is influencing my predictions for the presidential race.  More than likely I will have to write in Ron Paul again this year.